The Sufi mystic, Meher Baba, believed that if a person is honest and speaks the truth, whatever he predicts will come true. Mindful of that I am making the following predictions, hopeful that they will come true.
While the mainstream media continue to be sensationalist, superficial and subjective, my constant mantra, believing that we believe and react to whatever we are told without thinking it through, I believe in actually thinking about things and coming to my own conclusions.
These are my hopeful predictions:
On the Affordable Care Act
I believe that a compromise can be found to save the best of the current law while also greatly improving it. As I have written before, I think that the answer is to make applying for health care voluntary. Privater insurers could then reject any applicant for medical or financial reasons. Those denied coverage would be immediately eligible to the “public option.” It would be run as a federal program, much like Medicare. Those denied for medical reasons would get coverage with a share of cost but no deductibles. Those denied for financial reasons would get coverage with little or no share of cost and no deductibles. Private insurers no longer having a captive audience, would have to compete for the low risk applicants by lowering costs and eliminating deductibles. The states would have no say as they do now with Medicaid expansion. Nineteen states have refused to expand their Medicaid base denying our poorest Americans health coverage. This would no longer be the case. The extra cost of the public option could be offset by dramatically reducing medical billing fraud and by needing to pay less to subsidize lower income applicants now paying the higher rates.
On Illegal Immigration
I believe that the administration will focus first on illegal immigrants who commit serious crimes. They will then work on deporting recent illegal immigrants who have arrived in the past few years and are awaiting deportation. Sanctuary cities that have refused to cooperate with federal authorities by notifying them of known criminals in their systems that should be deported will be encouraged to do so without having to go out of their ways to find undocumented residents in their communities who are law abiding and contributing to their communities. They will be safe and will be granted legal status. This status will mean that they are safe here to work and be paid as well as their American citizen coworkers are, but would not be entitled to welfare benefits or future citizenship.
The U.S. will build a wall to discourage future attempts to enter America without invitation, but we should also help Latin American nations like Mexico, Guatemala El Salvador and Honduras improve their conditions so their citizens will not feel a need to leave their beloved homelands to live elsewhere. Cultures can radically change for the better as we have seen in Germany and Japan after World War II.
On Legal Immigration
I think that the criteria for legal immigration might be revised to favor applicants with skills and training that would make them most likely to succeed and thrive in this country. Immigrants must be willing to accept American values especially around the treatment of women and minorities. They must want to embrace American cultural norms. Those seeking entrance from war torn lands will get more extensive screening to ensure that they will not endanger American residents.
On Iran
The agreement between Iran and the Western powers will be honored by Iran and the West, including America.
On Foreign Military and Humanitarian Aid
The U.S. should continue to staff military bases abroad to secure the host nations. In return, those nations will be asked to pay the entire cost. The U.S. currently has more than 800 military bases abroad from South Korea and Japan to Europe. Host countries can decline to pay for their own defense and the U.S. will leave those locations.
The U.S. should re-evaluate its foreign aid totalling more than $40 billion a year. Should Pakistan, Palestine, Egypt and others still get our aid? Should Israel get funding to build more settlements in what is considered the West Bank? Is our humanitarian aid being used as efficiently and effectively as possible?
The U.S. now paying 22% of all NATO costs. Would having host countries pay for our presence reduce that amount? If not, should we re-evaluate what our share of cost to defend other countries be?
The U.S. now pays 25% of U.N. costs. Is that too high a price to pay for the benefits we receive? The U.N. should work with regional alliances like the
Organization of American States, the ones in sub Sahara Africa, the Arab states to form mini U.N.s in their neighboring countries.
On Energy
The U.S. must and will continue to expand our efforts to produce energy sources like solar, wind, and hydroelectric and faze out dependence on coal and oil. We should be no longer reliant on foreign sources for our energy needs.
On Trade
We will negotiate trade agreements that are focused on providing for American manufacturing jobs and making us self reliant for our needs for products and services. While we used to produce 90% of our products, we now produce only 2%. The U.S. must be self sufficient again. Products produced for foreign markets, can be produced in those countries and regions to reduce transportation costs. Foreign companies who sell their products in America should be encouraged to produce them here.
On Taxes
Corporate taxes and unnecessary restrictions should be reduced to encourage investment while tax loopholes that are not productive should be eliminated.
Individual tax rates should be lowered but only after itemized deductions are eliminated and replaced by standard deductions. The top marginal tax rate could be lowered to 35% for incomes of one million and up, but the rate would be for the total income with all forms of income considered equally taxable, so $50,000 in dividends would be considered the same as $50,000 in interest, or pensions or earned income minus FICA withholding. This change would make doing one’s taxes something that takes minutes, would reduce IRS audits because everything would be on the W2 or 1099 and minimize the temptation to defraud. It would also raise tax revenue, with the rich paying their fair share.
On Social Security
Currently, 6.2% of an employee’s earned income up to about $110,000 is collected from each employee and also from the employer for a total of 12.4%. This could be immediately raised to being 6.5% for each for a total of 13% of the first $250,000 in earned income. Social Security benefits to retirees would be fully taxable with all the taxes collected going back into the Special Fund for future Social Security payments. This would extend the life of the fund’s viability. If this is found to be not enough in the distant future, the withholding amount to be gradually increased to be a maximum of 8% for employee and employer to keep the fund viable.
On Medicare
This is going to be the most difficult issue. Currently, 5% of the recipients use 50% of Medicare dollars. The fraud cost is estimated to be more than $100 billion a year. We must find a way to reduce fraud and to better treat the 5% who are most in need of services. Efforts should be made to dramatically reduce the root causes be they substance abuse, obesity, smoking and/or lack of exercise.
On Abortion and Birth control
This administration believes in states rights. I do not believe that they will try to overturn Roe versus Wade but leave it up to the states to establish guidelines for abortions. No one dreams of someday having an abortion and yet we abort 20% of our pregnancies. Half of all pregnancies are unintended and 40% of them are aborted. How can unwanted pregnancies be avoided? Gays and lesbians have no accidental pregnancies and yet they enjoy a healthy and enjoyable sex life. Birth control devices have been found to be not reliable to prevent pregnancies. What practices could be encouraged to avoid the need to take human life?
On LGBTQ Rights
This issue will also be considered up to the states. It does not appear that many changes will be enacted. Discrimination because of sexual choices will continue to be unacceptable but allowances will be made for the exercise of deeply held religious beliefs. If several vendors offer the same service but one does not choose to, that one need not be forced since others are more than willing to get the business. If a clerk refuses to issues a marriage license to a rare gay couple wishing to marry in a county, other employees can be empowered to do the service.
When the use of bathrooms for transgender students or adults becomes an issue, the first question must be how many people are we talking about. Since this is a very rare choice, there might be only one student who is affected. Given the rarity, an accommodation can surely be made. But if the first thought is the principle, disregarding the number involved, overreactions can cloud decision making. This too will probably be a states rights issue and not dealt with by the federal government.
On Racial Violence
There has been a dramatic rise is racial violence over the past few years. It is most prevalent in inner cities with large concentrations of minority youth. The focus must be on not only increasing police presence but also in improving conditions there be it in infrastructure, housing, education, skills training and entry level jobs that can provide ladders up to the middle class.
On Israel
A two state solution is a necessity but the barrier has been the refusal of many Palestinians to accept Israel’s right to exist. The twin governments ruling the Palestinian regions cannot rule the future state. My suggestion, though an unlikely one, is for the West Bank and Gaza to once again be part of Jordan, which has a stable, peaceful government and already is 50% Palestinian. Palestine was a part of Jordan until 1967. The Palestinians must be persuaded to completely disarm leaving their defense in the hands of Jordan. Israel will need to donate many of their West Bank settlements to the Palestinians.
In Conclusion
While all these predictions might not come true, I hope that the vast majority of them are possible and likely. Partisan politics and our sensationalist media have made resolution of these issues seem almost impossible with the worst case scenarios seeming most likely. I beg to differ. I am an optimist but also a realistic one, I hope.
Let’s stay tuned to see how much of this is correct.
While the mainstream media continue to be sensationalist, superficial and subjective, my constant mantra, believing that we believe and react to whatever we are told without thinking it through, I believe in actually thinking about things and coming to my own conclusions.
These are my hopeful predictions:
On the Affordable Care Act
I believe that a compromise can be found to save the best of the current law while also greatly improving it. As I have written before, I think that the answer is to make applying for health care voluntary. Privater insurers could then reject any applicant for medical or financial reasons. Those denied coverage would be immediately eligible to the “public option.” It would be run as a federal program, much like Medicare. Those denied for medical reasons would get coverage with a share of cost but no deductibles. Those denied for financial reasons would get coverage with little or no share of cost and no deductibles. Private insurers no longer having a captive audience, would have to compete for the low risk applicants by lowering costs and eliminating deductibles. The states would have no say as they do now with Medicaid expansion. Nineteen states have refused to expand their Medicaid base denying our poorest Americans health coverage. This would no longer be the case. The extra cost of the public option could be offset by dramatically reducing medical billing fraud and by needing to pay less to subsidize lower income applicants now paying the higher rates.
On Illegal Immigration
I believe that the administration will focus first on illegal immigrants who commit serious crimes. They will then work on deporting recent illegal immigrants who have arrived in the past few years and are awaiting deportation. Sanctuary cities that have refused to cooperate with federal authorities by notifying them of known criminals in their systems that should be deported will be encouraged to do so without having to go out of their ways to find undocumented residents in their communities who are law abiding and contributing to their communities. They will be safe and will be granted legal status. This status will mean that they are safe here to work and be paid as well as their American citizen coworkers are, but would not be entitled to welfare benefits or future citizenship.
The U.S. will build a wall to discourage future attempts to enter America without invitation, but we should also help Latin American nations like Mexico, Guatemala El Salvador and Honduras improve their conditions so their citizens will not feel a need to leave their beloved homelands to live elsewhere. Cultures can radically change for the better as we have seen in Germany and Japan after World War II.
On Legal Immigration
I think that the criteria for legal immigration might be revised to favor applicants with skills and training that would make them most likely to succeed and thrive in this country. Immigrants must be willing to accept American values especially around the treatment of women and minorities. They must want to embrace American cultural norms. Those seeking entrance from war torn lands will get more extensive screening to ensure that they will not endanger American residents.
On Iran
The agreement between Iran and the Western powers will be honored by Iran and the West, including America.
On Foreign Military and Humanitarian Aid
The U.S. should continue to staff military bases abroad to secure the host nations. In return, those nations will be asked to pay the entire cost. The U.S. currently has more than 800 military bases abroad from South Korea and Japan to Europe. Host countries can decline to pay for their own defense and the U.S. will leave those locations.
The U.S. should re-evaluate its foreign aid totalling more than $40 billion a year. Should Pakistan, Palestine, Egypt and others still get our aid? Should Israel get funding to build more settlements in what is considered the West Bank? Is our humanitarian aid being used as efficiently and effectively as possible?
The U.S. now paying 22% of all NATO costs. Would having host countries pay for our presence reduce that amount? If not, should we re-evaluate what our share of cost to defend other countries be?
The U.S. now pays 25% of U.N. costs. Is that too high a price to pay for the benefits we receive? The U.N. should work with regional alliances like the
Organization of American States, the ones in sub Sahara Africa, the Arab states to form mini U.N.s in their neighboring countries.
On Energy
The U.S. must and will continue to expand our efforts to produce energy sources like solar, wind, and hydroelectric and faze out dependence on coal and oil. We should be no longer reliant on foreign sources for our energy needs.
On Trade
We will negotiate trade agreements that are focused on providing for American manufacturing jobs and making us self reliant for our needs for products and services. While we used to produce 90% of our products, we now produce only 2%. The U.S. must be self sufficient again. Products produced for foreign markets, can be produced in those countries and regions to reduce transportation costs. Foreign companies who sell their products in America should be encouraged to produce them here.
On Taxes
Corporate taxes and unnecessary restrictions should be reduced to encourage investment while tax loopholes that are not productive should be eliminated.
Individual tax rates should be lowered but only after itemized deductions are eliminated and replaced by standard deductions. The top marginal tax rate could be lowered to 35% for incomes of one million and up, but the rate would be for the total income with all forms of income considered equally taxable, so $50,000 in dividends would be considered the same as $50,000 in interest, or pensions or earned income minus FICA withholding. This change would make doing one’s taxes something that takes minutes, would reduce IRS audits because everything would be on the W2 or 1099 and minimize the temptation to defraud. It would also raise tax revenue, with the rich paying their fair share.
On Social Security
Currently, 6.2% of an employee’s earned income up to about $110,000 is collected from each employee and also from the employer for a total of 12.4%. This could be immediately raised to being 6.5% for each for a total of 13% of the first $250,000 in earned income. Social Security benefits to retirees would be fully taxable with all the taxes collected going back into the Special Fund for future Social Security payments. This would extend the life of the fund’s viability. If this is found to be not enough in the distant future, the withholding amount to be gradually increased to be a maximum of 8% for employee and employer to keep the fund viable.
On Medicare
This is going to be the most difficult issue. Currently, 5% of the recipients use 50% of Medicare dollars. The fraud cost is estimated to be more than $100 billion a year. We must find a way to reduce fraud and to better treat the 5% who are most in need of services. Efforts should be made to dramatically reduce the root causes be they substance abuse, obesity, smoking and/or lack of exercise.
On Abortion and Birth control
This administration believes in states rights. I do not believe that they will try to overturn Roe versus Wade but leave it up to the states to establish guidelines for abortions. No one dreams of someday having an abortion and yet we abort 20% of our pregnancies. Half of all pregnancies are unintended and 40% of them are aborted. How can unwanted pregnancies be avoided? Gays and lesbians have no accidental pregnancies and yet they enjoy a healthy and enjoyable sex life. Birth control devices have been found to be not reliable to prevent pregnancies. What practices could be encouraged to avoid the need to take human life?
On LGBTQ Rights
This issue will also be considered up to the states. It does not appear that many changes will be enacted. Discrimination because of sexual choices will continue to be unacceptable but allowances will be made for the exercise of deeply held religious beliefs. If several vendors offer the same service but one does not choose to, that one need not be forced since others are more than willing to get the business. If a clerk refuses to issues a marriage license to a rare gay couple wishing to marry in a county, other employees can be empowered to do the service.
When the use of bathrooms for transgender students or adults becomes an issue, the first question must be how many people are we talking about. Since this is a very rare choice, there might be only one student who is affected. Given the rarity, an accommodation can surely be made. But if the first thought is the principle, disregarding the number involved, overreactions can cloud decision making. This too will probably be a states rights issue and not dealt with by the federal government.
On Racial Violence
There has been a dramatic rise is racial violence over the past few years. It is most prevalent in inner cities with large concentrations of minority youth. The focus must be on not only increasing police presence but also in improving conditions there be it in infrastructure, housing, education, skills training and entry level jobs that can provide ladders up to the middle class.
On Israel
A two state solution is a necessity but the barrier has been the refusal of many Palestinians to accept Israel’s right to exist. The twin governments ruling the Palestinian regions cannot rule the future state. My suggestion, though an unlikely one, is for the West Bank and Gaza to once again be part of Jordan, which has a stable, peaceful government and already is 50% Palestinian. Palestine was a part of Jordan until 1967. The Palestinians must be persuaded to completely disarm leaving their defense in the hands of Jordan. Israel will need to donate many of their West Bank settlements to the Palestinians.
In Conclusion
While all these predictions might not come true, I hope that the vast majority of them are possible and likely. Partisan politics and our sensationalist media have made resolution of these issues seem almost impossible with the worst case scenarios seeming most likely. I beg to differ. I am an optimist but also a realistic one, I hope.
Let’s stay tuned to see how much of this is correct.
